Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.