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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.