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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he became the fifth British prime minister to take up the role over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Brexit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for decades – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Essential context: from the moment Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament split into three opposing factions – left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the next day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”