Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Isolation Strategy Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the files included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.